Dr. Kirill Shamiev

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Kirill Shamiev is a researcher at Vilnius University (VU), focusing on Russia’s civil-military relations and domestic politics and policymaking. He also serves as an associate analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and a non-resident senior fellow at the Kennan Institute.

Prior to joining VU, K. Shamiev worked as a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and as a senior researcher at PPMI, a European public sector consulting company. He has extensive experience in designing, coordinating, and conducting studies and evaluations for the European Commission, EU Member States and U.S. clients.

K. Shamiev holds a PhD in political science and an MA in Public Policy from Central European University. His work has been published in the Armed Forces and Society journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy and the Routledge Handbook of Russian Politics and Society. He is an author of Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil–Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking published in Oxford University Press and Hurst Publishers.

Research projects and grants

• Smarter spending today, safer societies tomorrow: Digitally-enabled capabilities for European defence, 2025, Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS).
• Dynamics of Russian Civil-Military Relations During the War with Ukraine, 2025, Center for Naval Analysis (CNA).

Ongoing and past outsourced research

• Study to support the evaluation of the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) and the European Cybersecurity Certification Framework, 2024, European Commission.

Selected analytical pieces and comments:

• Shamiev, K. (2026, May 1). To leave or not to leave: How Russian technocrats undermined Western efforts to isolate Russia. Kennan Institute, Wilson Center (The Russia File). https://www.kennaninstitute.org/articles/to-leave-or-not-to-leave
• Shamiev, K. (2026, January 26). Ore and order: Russia’s rare-earth strategy for the Ukraine talks [Commentary]. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). https://ecfr.eu/article/ore-and-order-russias-rare-earth-strategy-for-the-ukraine-talks/
• Shamiev, K., & Verdi, G. (2025, November 28). Smarter spending today, safer societies tomorrow: Digitally-enabled capabilities for European defence [Policy brief]. Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS). https://feps-europe.eu/publication/smarter-spending-today-safer-societies-tomorrow/
• Shamiev, K. (2025, August 5). Dynamics of Russian civil-military relations during the war with Ukraine (Report No. DOP-2025-U-042031-Final). CNA. https://www.cna.org/analyses/2025/08/dynamics-of-russia-civil-military-relations
• Brooks, R., Shamiev, K., & Zavadskaya, M. (2025, May 15). General knowledge: Russian military chiefs, the Russian public and Ukraine and China [Commentary]. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). https://ecfr.eu/article/general-knowledge-russian-military-chiefs-the-russian-public-and-ukraine-and-china/
• Shamiev, K. (2024, May 15). Brass tacks: Why Russia’s military fails to reform [Policy brief]. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). https://ecfr.eu/publication/brass-tacks-why-russias-military-fails-to-reform/
• Shamiev, K., & Luchenko, K. (2024, March 14). Life in exile: A new approach to Russian democrats in Europe [Policy brief]. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). https://ecfr.eu/publication/life-in-exile-a-new-approach-to-russian-democrats-in-europe/
• Shamiev, K. (2023, June 28). Be prepared: Lessons for the West from the Wagner mutiny [Commentary]. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). https://ecfr.eu/article/be-prepared-lessons-for-the-west-from-the-wagner-mutiny/
• LaRoche, C. D., & Shamiev, K. (2023, June 30). Russia’s nukes are probably secure from rogue actors. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/30/russia-nuclear-arsenal-rogue-actors-prigozhin-rebellion/
• Clarkson, A., & Shamiev, K. (2023, May 16). The EU should start planning now for Russia after Putin [Opinion]. The Guardian.
• Shamiev, K. (2022, May 5). The state of the Russian military. In Ares & Athena (Issue 19: (Re)thinking Russia). Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research (CHACR), British Army. https://chacr.org.uk/2022/05/05/ares-athena-issue-19/